LABORATORY FOR MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE REGIONAL SYSTEMS DYNAMICS

Mathematical Modeling Group

The head:
Efim Yakovlevich Frisman, Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences
Phone/fax: (42622) 61362, 20405 E-mail: frisman@mail.ru

The staff: B.E. Fishman, A.N. Kolobov, M.P. Kulakov, G.P. Neverova, O.L. Revutskaya, K.V. Shlufman, E.V. Kurilova.

Basic research areas:

- construction and study of a basic model for regional territorial development;
- analysis and mathematical modeling of the population dynamics in a region;
- construction and study of mathematical models for spatial-temporal dynamics of vegetative associations;
- mathematical modeling of the harvested animals number dynamics in the Middle Amur Region; optimization of trade;
- elaboration of models for the biological communities dynamics in the varying environment.

Main results:
By analogy with the J. Forrester's model of world dynamics the regional model is constructed. Basic equations of dynamics have been proposed: for the funds (fixed assets); employment in economic sectors; stocks; the contamination degree. The model is verified on the statistic data for the JAR.

The new mathematical model providing more detailed description of basic mechanisms of competition (especially for the light resources) among various species belonging to different arboreal strata, was proposed for the quantitative analysis of spatial heterogeneity of vegetation.

The further development and investigation of the generalized mathematical model variants for the game population number dynamics has been provided, aimed at the influence of trade description and study.

The detailed model analysis of the number dynamics was made for all major trade species. An optimal strategy has been determined for exploiting the game populations inhabiting the Middle Amur River. By means of mathematical modeling the detailed theoretical analysis of possible evolutionary - genetic consequences of trade was carried out.

The Group of Socio-Economic Research

The head:
Tatyana Mikhailovna Komarova, Ph.D. (Geography)
Phone: (42622)40395; E-mail: carpi-komarova@yandex.ru

The staff: S.N. Mishchuk, S.V. Anosova, I.V. Kalinina, A.B. Sukhoveeva, E.A. Grigorieva, M.U. Khavinson.

Basic research areas:

- analysis of the processes of dynamics; revealing basic conditions and factors for structural changes in regional economics;
- analysis of the JAR international and interregional economic relations;
- the processes of dynamics analysis of the JAR population quantitative and qualitative characteristics and their forecasting.
- study of bioclimatic conditions in the Russian Far- East.

Main results:
On the basis of socio-economic data for Jewish Autonomous Region the model of regional industrial policy has been elaborated. A strategy of industrial development is substantiated on the basis of the Kimckano-Sutarsky ore mining and processing enterprise construction as a starting- point and other industrial projects.

The development of industry forecast has been elaborated according to the modernization and inertia variant based on the major investment projects accomplishment.

Both geographical and commodity structures of interregional and international trade in the JAR, the commodities exchange dynamics have been analyzed.

The population reproduction dynamics in the JAR and its separate districts is analyzed. Modern tendencies and prospects concerning the demographic processes development in the region were identified, as well as the currant migration processes and their impact on the demographic development. Main socio-economic directions aimed at health preservation and death-rate decrease were considered. The structure of morbidity and mortality from diseases is analyzed according to geochemical features of the territory.

The methods of climatic discomfort assessment in the Far Eastern monsoon climate conditions are elaborated and tested in the Jewish Autonomous Region, which is subdivided into three bioclimatic zones: Obluchye northern mountainous, the Birobidzhan-Smidovich middle and the southern flat sone.